Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
